False Alarm

Synopsis

The New York Times-bestselling "skeptical environmentalist" argues that panic over climate change is causing more harm than good

Hurricanes batter our coasts. Wildfires rage across the American West. Glaciers collapse in the Artic. Politicians, activists, and the media espouse a common message: climate change is destroying the planet, and we must take drastic action immediately to stop it. Children panic about their future, and adults wonder if it is even ethical to bring new life into the world.

Enough, argues bestselling author Bjorn Lomborg. Climate change is real, but it's not the apocalyptic threat that we've been told it is. Projections of Earth's imminent demise are based on bad science and even worse economics. In panic, world leaders have committed to wildly expensive but largely ineffective policies that hamper growth and crowd out more pressing investments in human capital, from immunization to education.

False Alarm will convince you that everything you think about climate change is wrong -- and points the way toward making the world a vastly better, if slightly warmer, place for us all.

Summary

Chapter 1: The Fall of Icarus

* Argues that the relentless pursuit of growth and progress has hit its limits.
* Example: The global financial crisis of 2008, which revealed the unsustainability of unchecked financial expansion.

Chapter 2: The Defining Moment

* Explores the moment when the limits of growth become undeniable.
* Example: The 1972 "Limits to Growth" report by the Club of Rome, which warned of environmental consequences of economic expansion.

Chapter 3: The False Alarmist

* Discusses the tendency to dismiss warnings of impending collapse as "false alarms."
* Example: The "peak oil" theory, which has been repeatedly dismissed as alarmist, despite growing evidence of declining fossil fuel resources.

Chapter 4: The Denial Syndrome

* Examines why people tend to reject evidence of societal decline.
* Example: The psychological phenomenon of "denial," where individuals shield themselves from unpleasant truths that threaten their beliefs or worldview.

Chapter 5: The Collapse of Systems

* Describes the cascading failures that can occur when a complex system reaches its limits.
* Example: The "domino effect" seen during the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, where a series of interconnected events led to a major crisis.

Chapter 6: The Coming Correction

* Explores the potential consequences of societal collapse, including social unrest, environmental degradation, and economic depression.
* Example: The Syrian Civil War, which was triggered by a combination of environmental stress, social inequality, and economic collapse.

Chapter 7: The Great Simplification

* Argues that a collapse of complex systems may lead to a "Great Simplification," where society reverts to simpler and more localized ways of living.
* Example: The collapse of the Roman Empire, which led to the emergence of decentralized feudal societies.

Chapter 8: The Age of Resilience

* Explores the need for resilience in the face of potential collapse.
* Example: The Transition Network movement, which promotes local sustainable living and community resilience.

Chapter 9: The Seed of Hope

* Discusses the potential for positive outcomes following a societal collapse, such as a shift towards more equitable and sustainable societies.
* Example: The Native American Hopi prophecy, which foretells a "Purification Day" where the world will be cleansed and a new era of harmony will begin.

Chapter 10: The Great Transformation

* Argues that societal collapse could be an opportunity for a transformative shift towards a more sustainable and just world.
* Example: The "Green New Deal" policy proposals, which aim to address both environmental and economic challenges through government investment.