The Precipice

Synopsis

What existential threats does humanity face? And how can we secure our future?

'The Precipice is a powerful book . . . Ord's love for humanity and hope for its future is infectious' Spectator

'Ord's analysis of the science is exemplary . . . Thrillingly written' Sunday Times

We live during the most important era of human history. In the twentieth century, we developed the means to destroy ourselves - without developing the moral framework to ensure we won't. This is the Precipice, and how we respond to it will be the most crucial decision of our time.

Oxford moral philosopher Toby Ord explores the risks to humanity's future, from the familiar man-made threats of climate change and nuclear war, to the potentially greater, more unfamiliar threats from engineered pandemics and advanced artificial intelligence.

With clear and rigorous thinking, Ord calculates the various risk levels, and shows how our own time fits within the larger story of human history. We can say with certainty that the novel coronavirus does not pose such a risk. But could the next pandemic? And what can we do, in our present moment, to face the risks head on?

A major work that brings together the disciplines of physics, biology, earth and computer science, history, anthropology, statistics, international relations, political science and moral philosophy, The Precipice is a call for a new understanding of our age: a major reorientation in the way we see the world, our history, and the role we play in it.

Summary

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity is a book by Toby Ord that examines the possible risks posed to the world by technological advances and how we can prevent them.

In Chapter One, Toby outlines the challenge of our times: existential risk. He defines this as a threat that could bring about the end of humanity, either directly or indirectly. This is in contrast to other, more common risks, which have a much lower and less serious impact. He then presents the different types of existential risks that exist, such as global pandemics, nuclear warfare, asteroids, and other weapons of mass destruction.

In Chapter Two, Toby delves into the potential for technological advancement to exponentially amplify our capability and capacity for doing both good and bad. He then explains why our potential to accelerate technological advancement carries the uncertainty of introducing unknown risks that could potentially cause global devastation. As an example, he points to the rise of artificial intelligence; while this could lead to creative solutions to many of humanity's problems, it could also introduce unknown risks.

In Chapter Three, Toby dives into some of the technological threats that are most concerning, such as biotechnology, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence. He outlines the potential for these advances to greatly benefit humanity but also how they could be used to cause harm in a way we have never experienced before. He includes some real-world examples to illustrate his points, such as the lack of regulation of genetically engineered organisms that could be used as a weapon of mass destruction.

In Chapter Four, Toby discusses humanity's moral responsibility and our ability to assess the risks associated with our technological advancement. He argues that we must use ethical reasoning, science, and available facts to make decisions about the future of humanity, and that governments should take a proactive role in setting and enforcing rules that address our shared risk. Finally, he emphasizes the importance of collaboration and communication to ensure open exchange of ideas and information about technological risks.

In Chapter Five, Toby explores the steps we should take to mitigate the risks posed by current and upcoming technologies. He outlines the need for global collaboration, investment in preventative measures, and communication between those at the cutting edge of research and those responsible for making policy decisions. He also discusses the importance of increasing our knowledge base to give us a better understanding of risks.

In conclusion, The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity provides an informative and thought-provoking look at the potential risks posed to humanity by technological advances. Toby's argument is timely and relevant and provides an essential framework for understanding and mitigating the potential danger of new technologies.