Chapter 1: The Illusion of Control
* Miller explores the ways in which humans tend to overestimate their ability to control events and predict the future.
* Example: A surgeon who believes they can consistently predict the outcome of surgeries ignores factors such as patient variables and unforeseen complications.
Chapter 2: The Curse of Knowledge
* Miller highlights how individuals with specialized knowledge struggle to communicate it effectively to those without that knowledge.
* Example: An experienced engineer fails to convey a technical concept to a non-technical audience, leading to misunderstandings and frustration.
Chapter 3: The False Consensus Effect
* Miller explains the tendency of individuals to believe that others share their beliefs and opinions more than they actually do.
* Example: A politician assumes that their supporters represent the majority of the population, leading to erroneous decisions about policies and legislation.
Chapter 4: The Availability Bias
* Miller discusses how easily accessible information can bias our judgment and decision-making.
* Example: A news story about a plane crash makes us overestimate the likelihood of flying accidents, despite statistical evidence to the contrary.
Chapter 5: The Framing Effect
* Miller shows how the way information is presented can significantly influence our choices and perceptions.
* Example: A doctor presents the same treatment options in different ways, leading patients to choose the option that is framed as more positive and less risky.
Chapter 6: The Planning Fallacy
* Miller describes the tendency of individuals to underestimate the time and resources needed to complete tasks.
* Example: A construction project manager predicts a six-month completion date, but the project inevitably takes nine months due to unforeseen delays and challenges.
Chapter 7: The Sunk Cost Fallacy
* Miller explains the tendency to continue investing in a losing proposition even when it becomes clear that further investment is futile.
* Example: A gambler continues to bet on a losing slot machine, hoping to recoup their previous losses.
Chapter 8: The Hindsight Bias
* Miller discusses the phenomenon where individuals tend to view events as more predictable and less surprising in retrospect.
* Example: After a market crash, investors say, "I knew it was coming," although they had no prior warning.
Chapter 9: The Confirmation Bias
* Miller explores how individuals tend to seek and interpret information that confirms their existing beliefs.
* Example: A politician only reads news sources that support their political views, reinforcing their biases rather than exposing them to different perspectives.
Chapter 10: The Overconfidence Effect
* Miller shows how individuals tend to overestimate their knowledge, skills, and abilities.
* Example: A student believes they are well-prepared for an exam, but they fail to consider the complexity of the questions or the time constraints.
