Superforecasting

Synopsis

The international bestseller

'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
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What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?

Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.

In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.
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'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist

'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent

'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

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Summary

Chapter 1: Introduction
Superforecasting presents a framework for accurate prediction, based on research conducted by Philip Tetlock and his team. The book argues that forecasting is a skill that can be improved with training and practice.

Example: Tetlock's Good Judgment Project showed that certain individuals could consistently outperform the average forecaster in predicting events such as the outcome of elections or the likelihood of a terrorist attack.

Chapter 2: The Science of Forecasting
This chapter discusses the cognitive biases that can hinder accurate forecasting. It emphasizes the importance of using objective evidence and considering multiple perspectives.

Example: The "availability heuristic" leads us to overestimate the likelihood of events that are more easily recalled from memory. To mitigate this bias, forecasters should rely on data and avoid relying solely on vivid anecdotes.

Chapter 3: The Art of Superforecasting
The book introduces the concept of "superforecasting," which involves combining expert knowledge, scientific methods, and collaborative decision-making. Superforecasters are trained to identify and overcome cognitive biases.

Example: Superforecasters use "Bayesian updating" to continually refine their predictions based on new information. They also seek feedback from others to challenge their own assumptions and consider different perspectives.

Chapter 4: The Tools of Superforecasting
The chapter provides practical tools and techniques for improving forecasting accuracy. These include forecasting probability, using calibrated language, and breaking down complex questions into smaller components.

Example: Calibrating language involves using precise and quantifiable terms to describe the likelihood of an event. For instance, instead of saying "It's likely to rain," superforecasters might say "There's an 80% chance of precipitation."

Chapter 5: The Practice of Superforecasting
This chapter emphasizes the importance of practice and collaboration in developing superforecasting skills. It discusses the role of peer review, feedback, and ongoing training.

Example: Tetlock's Good Judgment Project created a community of superforecasters who collaborated and provided feedback on each other's predictions. This helped improve their overall accuracy.

Chapter 6: Superforecasting in the Real World
The book explores how superforecasting techniques can be applied in various fields, such as business, finance, and government. It highlights the potential benefits of using superforecasting to make better decisions.

Example: Superforecasting has been used to predict the success of new products, assess the risk of financial investments, and forecast geopolitical events. By incorporating superforecasting principles into decision-making processes, organizations can improve their outcomes.